NASA has determined where on the planet asteroid 2024 YR4 could fall

 

At the end of December 2023, astronomers discovered an asteroid that, seven years later, could cross Earth's path. Named 2024 YR4, the space object caught the attention of agencies such as the ESA (European Space Agency) due to its size and the small, but significant, chance of collision: 2.2%. Although the risk seems low, it is already mobilizing international monitoring groups to avoid surprises.

With an estimated diameter of between 40 and 90 meters — equivalent to a 30-story building — the asteroid is traveling at a speed of approximately 15 km/s. If it were to hit our planet, the energy released would be comparable to the explosion of 1,000 atomic bombs. The predicted date for the possible impact is December 22, 2032, but scientists emphasize that there is still time to confirm whether the event will occur or not.

Why Did Surveillance Start Now?

The rule is clear: Any asteroid larger than 20 meters in diameter and with a probability of impact greater than 1% requires immediate attention. 2024 YR4 fits these criteria, which has led to the activation of two UN response groups: the International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group. Together, they coordinate strategies to track the object and plan actions in case the risk increases.

Since its discovery on December 27, 2023, the probability of a collision has fluctuated between 1% and 2.2%. This type of variation is common, since the first estimates depend on initial calculations. As new data is collected, the trajectory is refined. The ESA explains that in such cases, the chance of impact usually rises at the beginning of the analyses and then drops quickly — sometimes to zero.

The Crucial Role of Observations

The asteroid is currently moving away from Earth in a nearly straight line, making it difficult to accurately measure its orbit. Ground-based telescopes are tracking its movement, but it will soon move into a position that can only be monitored by the James Webb Space Telescope. According to Richard Moissl, head of ESA’s Planetary Defence Office, Webb will be essential for calculating the object’s exact diameter — information that is critical to assessing the true risk.

2024 YR4 is suspected to be composed of rock, which changes little in the scenario but helps to understand its density. In 2028, the asteroid will make another close approach to Earth, and this encounter will be decisive. At that time, scientists will be able to collect more precise data on its trajectory, reducing (or eliminating) the uncertainty about the risk of impact in 2032.

Where Can the Asteroid Fall?

If the collision is confirmed, the regions at risk include the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea and southern Asia. The ESA emphasizes that if the diameter is less than 50 meters, the recommendation would be to evacuate the affected area. Above that, other measures could be discussed, such as the use of technologies to deflect the rock — something that is still in the study phase.

Without Alarmism, But With Caution

Despite the numbers, space agencies avoid any catastrophic tone. Seven years is more than enough to improve predictions and, if necessary, take action. Furthermore, historical data show that asteroids with similar initial probabilities almost always deviate from their course after detailed analysis.

In the meantime, 2024 YR4 continues to be closely monitored. Each new measurement will shed light on its fate—and ours. For space enthusiasts, it’s a unique opportunity to see, in real time, how science works to protect the planet from cosmic threats.