Could Humans Be Truly Alone in the Universe?

Our solar system has been circling the heart of the Milky Way’s black hole for 4.6 billion years. However, determining the exact number of revolutions our sun has completed around the galaxy during this time is a challenging task.

It can be perplexing to grasp the notion that Earth is in constant motion through space. Yet, even more bewildering is the realization that we are simultaneously undertaking two journeys — orbiting the sun and traversing the Milky Way.

Similar to how the moon revolves around Earth and our planet orbits the sun, our sun also revolves around the Milky Way. To be precise, it orbits the supermassive black hole situated at the center of our galaxy. In actuality, the entire Milky Way is continually rotating around the heart of our galaxy’s black hole.

So, how many times has our solar system completed orbits around the colossal black hole at the center of the Milky Way? The answer isn’t as straightforward as one might assume.

In contrast to the predictable orbits of planets around the sun, the trajectory of our sun through the Milky Way is significantly longer and less stable, making it challenging to determine the number of revolutions around the galaxy’s center.

Utilizing basic mathematical calculations can offer insights into the duration it takes for the solar system to traverse our galaxy, thereby providing an estimate of the number of rotations our cosmic neighborhood has made. However, providing a precise answer remains elusive.

According to Space.com, the sun and the rest of the solar system are currently hurtling through our galaxy at approximately 448,000 mph (720,000 km/h). While this speed seems remarkable, certain stars within the Milky Way, known as hypervelocity stars, travel through the galaxy at speeds reaching up to 5.1 million mph (8.2 million km/h).

At its current velocity, it takes around 230 million years for our sun to complete a single orbit around the Milky Way. This duration exceeds the existence of dinosaurs on Earth and surpasses the lifespan of Homo sapiens by more than 750 times.

The sun, estimated to be around 4.6 billion years old, was joined by Earth approximately 100 million years later. In theory, if the sun’s orbital path had remained consistent throughout its existence, it would have completed approximately 20 orbits around our galaxy, with Earth accompanying it for roughly 98% of those revolutions.

However, the sun’s orbit has likely undergone significant alterations over time. Rather than maintaining a constant trajectory, our sun has likely undergone substantial movements since its formation.

Victor Debattista, an astrophysicist at the University of Central Lancashire, suggests that the sun’s original position differed from its current location. It is probable that our sun originated much closer to the center of the Milky Way.

Currently positioned approximately 26,100 light-years from the galaxy’s center, our sun’s chemical composition indicates that it was born roughly 16,300 light-years away from the galactic core. This outward migration, known as “radial migration,” involves stars being propelled along the spiral arms of galaxies like the Milky Way by the momentum generated by the rotating limbs — comparable to how a surfer navigates a wave.

During its formation, the sun’s orbital period was considerably shorter. Initially, it likely took approximately 125 million years for our star to complete a full orbit. As the sun migrated outward, its orbital period lengthened, a process that likely spanned billions of years.

Consequently, the sun has likely traversed the Milky Way more times than previously estimated, although the exact magnitude of these movements remains uncertain.

Radial migration is not unique to our sun; numerous other stars in the solar neighborhood are believed to have originated elsewhere and subsequently migrated outward. Moreover, the proportion of stars migrating outward increases with distance from the Milky Way’s center.

Presently, the sun is considered to be in a relatively stable orbit around our galaxy. However, there remains a possibility that it has not completed its outward migration entirely.

According to Debattista, it is plausible that the sun will continue its outward migration. Nonetheless, predicting the extent of this movement remains challenging.

Even the most fervent SETI investigator would concede that, hitherto, our endeavors to detect life forms elsewhere in the universe have been met with an unsettling absence of response. But why?

The Hypothesis of Earth’s Rarity In the year 2000, scholars Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee published a tome positing a plausible explanation for the apparent solitude of our species. Entitled “Rare Earth: Why Complex Life is Uncommon in the Universe” (Copernicus Books, 2000), this work was the brainchild of Ward, a paleontologist, and Brownlee, an astrophysicist, who collaborated to present what has since become known as the Rare Earth hypothesis.

In essence, the Rare Earth hypothesis posits that the particular circumstances that facilitated the emergence and proliferation of complex life forms on Earth are exceedingly exceptional and are unlikely to be replicated on a grand scale throughout the cosmos.

Ward and Brownlee theorized that a confluence of fortuitous factors pertaining to Earth, its parent star, and the solar system at large contributed to the creation of an environment that was highly conducive and remarkably stable for the sustenance of life. While certain aspects of this hypothesis had previously been the subject of discourse within astronomical circles, others had remained largely unexplored.

The Rare Earth hypothesis delves into myriad facets of Earth and its environs that played pivotal roles in nurturing the development of complex life forms. Among the critical factors identified by Ward and Brownlee were:

The fortuitous positioning of Earth within a conducive region of a suitable galaxy, where ample quantities of heavy elements are available and sources of sterilizing radiation are sufficiently distant.

An orbit around a star characterized by a lengthy lifespan (measured in billions of years) yet devoid of excessive ultraviolet radiation emissions.

• An orbital distance conducive to the presence of liquid water on or near the planet’s surface.
• A distance from the host star sufficient to prevent tidal locking.
• Orbital stability around the host star over cosmological timescales.
• A planetary tilt conducive to mild seasonal atmospheric variations.
• The presence of gas giants within the solar system capable of mitigating the influx of debris into the inner solar system, thereby reducing the likelihood of catastrophic cosmic collisions and subsequent mass extinctions.
• A planetary mass adequate for retaining an atmosphere and supporting liquid bodies of water.
• The presence of a sufficiently large moon to stabilize the planet’s axial tilt.
• A molten planetary core generating a substantial global magnetic field, which serves to shield the surface from solar radiation.
• The emergence of oxygen, and its presence in the requisite quantities and at the appropriate juncture, enabling complex life forms to harness it.
• The occurrence of plate tectonics, which contribute to the formation of landmasses, foster diverse ecosystems, regulate the carbon cycle, avert a runaway greenhouse effect, and stabilize global surface temperatures.

Could Our Solitude Be Absolute?

In the two decades since the publication of their seminal work, interest in the tenets of the Rare Earth hypothesis has only intensified. Recently, Astronomy engaged both Ward and Brownlee in discussions regarding their hypothesis. Ward recalled how the genesis of the Rare Earth hypothesis can be traced back to a casual conversation with Brownlee inspired by a cinematic portrayal.

“We were merely discussing the absurdity of the scene in the bar from Star Wars,” remarked Ward. “Observing the myriad alien species depicted therein! I must confess, the notion of ubiquitous extraterrestrial life forms appears to have been uncritically embraced by the populace.”

Ward and Brownlee challenged several widely held beliefs underpinning the notion of ubiquitous complex life forms. For instance, while the renowned astronomer Carl Sagan often characterized our Sun as unremarkable, the reality is that approximately 80 to 95 percent of stars exhibit significant disparities in terms of size, mass, luminosity, lifespan, and other pertinent factors.

Moreover, previous attempts to account for the profusion of life on Earth juxtaposed with its scarcity in the broader universe had overlooked the role of plate tectonics entirely. Indeed, a substantial portion of the Rare Earth tome is dedicated to elucidating this subject, expounding upon the pivotal role of plate tectonics in sculpting Earth into a hospitable abode. To the best of our knowledge, Earth stands alone within our solar system in possessing active plate tectonics. Additionally, numerous other characteristics of our hospitable planet remain unparalleled elsewhere in the universe.

Does Simple Life Suffice?

It behooves us to acknowledge that the Rare Earth hypothesis pertains solely to the emergence of complex life forms. Ward and Brownlee contend that while simple life forms such as bacteria may be ubiquitous in the cosmos — indeed, even the harshest terrestrial environments harbor microbial life — complex life forms, including metazoans such as animals and humans, are exceedingly rare.

“If extraterrestrial life were to be discovered, it would likely manifest in microbial form,” asserted Brownlee. “Consider, Earth is endowed with a lifespan of approximately 12 billion years, yet the range of environmental conditions conducive to the sustenance of metazoans is significantly limited in comparison to bacteria.” This implies that the environmental prerequisites for simple life forms endure far longer than those for complex life forms.

“The duration during which our atmosphere harbors oxygen — essential for plant photosynthesis and metazoan respiration — likely accounts for only 10 to 20 percent of Earth’s lifespan. Thus, were one to alight upon our planet at random throughout its entire chronology, one would find scant evidence of complex life,” Brownlee elaborated.

Countervailing Evidence Encouraged Despite Ward and Brownlee’s conviction regarding the scarcity of complex life forms in the universe, they eagerly anticipate the emergence of new data from state-of-the-art observatories such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), which aims to scrutinize the atmospheres of exoplanets in unprecedented detail. Certain atmospheric signatures hold greater revelatory potential than others.

“I contend that the quest for oxygenated atmospheres, coupled with the search for telltale signatures indicative of chlorophyll, assumes paramount importance. The synthesis of specific molecules is constrained by intrinsic limitations,” Ward opined. “Ultimately, any life forms analogous to terrestrial animals would necessitate copious amounts of oxygen. The notion of sentient beings thriving on carbon dioxide alone is patently untenable.”

Though compelling, the Rare Earth hypothesis has not been immune to criticism; numerous environmental factors identified by Ward and Brownlee in their